Super-cycle?

Today, let’s explore the idea of the supercycle — what exactly we’re witnessing and why it could be more than just market hype. Before we dig deeper, it’s important to set the foundation:

1. Markets discounts everything.
2. The higher the risk, the greater the potential reward.

We’re on a rise in the crypto market, climbing higher than ever before, and we’re likely to see a few more bullish 3-month cycles before things eventually go south. Now, why do these principles matter when analyzing this supercycle? Fundamentally, nothing changes. Everyone in the market is here to generate returns. It’s a zero-sum game — profit for one means a loss for another.

Whether investors are chasing high-risk ‘altcoins’ or VC-backed tokens, it ultimately revolves around market maturity. However, market maturity is not defined by retail investors; they tend to gravitate toward assets that promise rapid gains, often leading to quick losses. True market maturity is characterized by the involvement of ‘smart money.’ The key question is: Is institutional capital invested, and if so, how deeply?

Click the link below to view the entire Discord discussion @Quantico_xyz

It’s possible that I overlooked certain Alpha or lessons that are hidden throughout the whole talk we had the previous evening.

https://shorturl.at/ueKy1

Before diving into the current market state and its possible paths, let’s tackle a few key questions:

1. Tech Bubble Déjà Vu: Is the crypto market mirroring the tech bubble’s trajectory, and where are we on that timeline?
2. 2. 50 BPS — Short-Term Rise or Long-Term Downturn? Is the 50 basis point rate hike signaling a short-term boost, or is it pointing to an inevitable long-term decline?
3. 3. Smart Money’s Crypto Dive: How deep is smart money swimming in Bitcoin and the broader crypto waters?
4. 4. Supercycle Unfolding: How will this supercycle play out, and what clues can guide us through its twists and turns?”

Let’s dive into the tech bubble. Most companies vanished post-burst, illustrating how ruthless market cycles can be. From the late 1980s through the early 1990s, tech companies flooded public markets, only for the bubble to burst in 2000. Even Apple, which listed in 1980, wasn’t immune and struggled for nearly two decades before becoming an economic powerhouse.

Now, consider Bitcoin, listed on exchanges in 2009. We’re witnessing a similar phase in crypto — markets are beginning to define value, filtering out weaker projects. Just as the tech bubble forced the selection of high-quality companies, the crypto market will discount those incapable of adapting and thriving.

Recently, the Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark federal funds rate by 50 basis points during the September 2024 meeting, the first cut in over four years following a series of hikes to combat inflation. This move has flooded the market with liquidity, aligning with the election cycle and positive sentiment. We may be on the cusp of another crypto bull run, potentially the second 3-month rally in this super cycle, much like we saw in Q1 FY24.

I’ve compiled an Excel table outlining all rate cuts above 50 basis points, along with their driving factors. This cut could be the catalyst, setting the stage for medium- and long-term market shifts.” The most telling data reveals the influx of smart money into crypto, with major players actively accumulating BTC — a clear sign of market maturity. Giants like BlackRock often steer market direction, and their bullish stance can signal a major shift.

As sentiment edges toward a full positive turn, we are likely gearing up for the next phase of this super cycle. The market appears poised for a second bull wave, potentially marking the start of an unprecedented rally in crypto’s history.

So, what defines this supercycle? We’ve covered the key points: just as the tech bubble’s collapse highlighted the ruthlessness of market cycles, Bitcoin and crypto now face a similar shakeout as markets filter out weaker projects. The recent 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve has injected significant liquidity into the market, echoing the setup of Q1 FY24. This points toward an impending bull run in late Q4 FY24, possibly extending into early Q1 FY25.

We’re likely on the verge of a 3-month rally, which will be followed by one final 3-month surge about a year later before the super cycle concludes. Post-supercycle, a deep bear market will set in, marking the last major correction before we transition to a more mature market landscape. We’re about to witness a major trend that will push the market to new heights, unfolding alongside the @monad_xyz mainnet launch.

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